All #Macroeconomy Stories

The risks to quantitative easing are benign during anemic recoveries. In this period of high inflation, it could results in bad losses.

Corporate greed has been wrongly blamed for this bout of inflation. Greedflation isn't the problem. Excess growth and labor shortages are.

Inflation has subsided, while the economy has been surprisingly strong. A soft landing looks likely, but there are still some risks.

The story of the United Kingdom's economy lately has been one of disaster, but recent revisions may have changed the narrative.

High frequency indicators allow economists to gauge economic performance in real-time and they are pointing at a German contraction.

The dysfunctional housing market in the United Kingdom prevents workers from moving to highly productive cities, leading to underperformance.

After years of stagnation following the Eurozone crisis, Southern Europe has turned the tables and is now outperforming the rest of the Eurozone.

Advanced economies are experiencing very tight labor markets. This worker shortage has implications for hiring. Recruiters are increasingly poaching employees rather than recruiting from a shrinking pool of unemployed, which has implications for monetary policy.

Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has become the event of the summer, with some claiming it has saved the economy. Can popstars prevent recessions?

The German economy is once again underperforming, experiencing a technical recession earlier this year. But why is the country sick again?

Germany was dubbed “the sick man of Europe” in the early 2000s. Labor market reforms paired with favorable macroeconomic conditions cured the economic malaise.

Japan's dismal demographic outlook has caused an interesting phenomenon: low unemployment paired with negative GDP growth. These "full employment recessions" are becoming more common in Europe.

The Canadian labor market came back roaring in June, adding an impressive 60,000 net new jobs.

After ten consecutive increases, the Federal Reserve paused its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, easing recession fears.

The Canadian labor market is showing signs of trouble. In May, employment dropped, and Gen Z students are partially to blame.

Maybe the U.S. job market’s hot streak isn’t slowing after all! The labor market defied expectations once again, adding 339,000 jobs in May.

Germany is officially in a recession. Though there are declines in several industries, weak government spending is the largest drain.

Political polarization is hurting the U.S. economy. The debt ceiling standoff is just the latest – and most dangerous – example.

The recession that was revised away: new economic projections from the BoE no longer show an upcoming downturn in the United Kingdom.

How can a country with five million inhabitants distort the GDP of Europe, an economic area with more than 340 million people?

Recent cooling in the economy has contributed to softer price increases in the headline numbers, but inflation remains fairly stubborn.

Canada saw another strong month of gains in April but this time the increase was driven by part-time work.

Unlike other advanced economies, the U.K. is experiencing particularly sticky inflation and the real possibility of a wage-price spiral.

A tight labor market continues to deliver steady income growth, even in the face of entrenched inflation; that income growth is powering consumer spending, and that spending is holding up an otherwise lackluster economy.

Eurozone inflation remains too hot, but commodity prices and distorted supply chains are no longer the causes. It's excess demand.

Inflation is cooling overall, but housing inflation remains stubbornly high. This neutral report underscores the pressure still on the Fed.

The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, signs of a strong but cooling labor market. This is what the Fed wants to see to justify the ending its cycle of rate hikes.

With low unemployment and a booming service industry, the Canadian labor market continues to show strength, despite recessionary fears. Overall, the Canadian labor market added 35,000 new jobs, a 0.2% increase from last month’s gains. 

The natural rate of unemployment is a key economic variable used by the Federal Reserve to assess the stance of monetary policy and economic growth, but it was overestimated for years.

Though a majority of economists expect a recession in 2023, some still believe in a soft landing scenario. Here's Recruitonomics' case for no recession.

A majority of economists believe a recession is likely in 2023, but they may not have enough faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting abilities.

The difference between the central bank and the OBR reflects diverging assumptions about employment, worker productivity, and business investment.

Financial volatility has returned to the Eurozone, but the central bank continued to hike interest rates to fight inflation. Germany's economy is at risk.

As the Fed tried to balance inflationary and financial pressures, its latest hike appeared almost dovish compared to past decisions.

Though union membership rates decreased last year, labor actions notably increased. What empowered workers in 2022?

Silicon Valley Bank’s failure from a lightning-quick bank run on March 10, the second largest in US history, has spooked financial markets.

In February, the U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. Job gains and the labor market overall remain very strong.

The Canadian economy added 22,000 jobs last month. Though subdued compared to January, this data shows continued labor market strength.

In the UK, consumer confidence and business sentiment are gradually increasing, as the economy continues to evade a massive downturn.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in hotter than expected in January, suggesting inflation will be hard to shake in 2023.

Tuesday's report was a reminder of two key things: inflation is not a single number, and never decide too much from a month’s worth of data.

While soft and hard data are disconnected in other countries, the United Kingdom is doing just as poorly as workers and businesses believe.

There is a confounding disconnect between soft and hard data in the US. Gloomy consumers and businesses created a "vibecession" last year, even though the hard data was strong.

Many forecasters have been predicting a large economic contraction for Germany in 2023 due to the spike in energy prices, but the economy has been surprisingly resilient until now.

The same tight labor market that has plagued recruiters in the past couple years has brought job seekers back into the fold, softening recruiting costs.

The U.S. economy added an astonishing 517,000 net new jobs in January; last month's jobs report was almost too good to be true.

The Bank of England's new economic projections show much less pessimism about the labor market and economic growth in the short term.

Wage growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022, encouraging news for Federal Reserve officials worried about too strong growth.

Inflation may be turning a corner but there are still some threats that could run it off the road, some of which are still unknown.

While a U.K. recession is highly likely, there is a lot of uncertainty on how deep and prolonged the economic downturn will be.