All #Macroeconomy Stories

The recession that was revised away: new economic projections from the BoE no longer show an upcoming downturn in the United Kingdom.

How can a country with five million inhabitants distort the GDP of Europe, an economic area with more than 340 million people?

Recent cooling in the economy has contributed to softer price increases in the headline numbers, but inflation remains fairly stubborn.

Canada saw another strong month of gains in April but this time the increase was driven by part-time work.

Unlike other advanced economies, the U.K. is experiencing particularly sticky inflation and the real possibility of a wage-price spiral.

A tight labor market continues to deliver steady income growth, even in the face of entrenched inflation; that income growth is powering consumer spending, and that spending is holding up an otherwise lackluster economy.

Eurozone inflation remains too hot, but commodity prices and distorted supply chains are no longer the causes. It's excess demand.

Inflation is cooling overall, but housing inflation remains stubbornly high. This neutral report underscores the pressure still on the Fed.

The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, signs of a strong but cooling labor market. This is what the Fed wants to see to justify the ending its cycle of rate hikes.

With low unemployment and a booming service industry, the Canadian labor market continues to show strength, despite recessionary fears. Overall, the Canadian labor market added 35,000 new jobs, a 0.2% increase from last month’s gains. 

The natural rate of unemployment is a key economic variable used by the Federal Reserve to assess the stance of monetary policy and economic growth, but it was overestimated for years.

Though a majority of economists expect a recession in 2023, some still believe in a soft landing scenario. Here's Recruitonomics' case for no recession.

A majority of economists believe a recession is likely in 2023, but they may not have enough faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting abilities.

The difference between the central bank and the OBR reflects diverging assumptions about employment, worker productivity, and business investment.

Financial volatility has returned to the Eurozone, but the central bank continued to hike interest rates to fight inflation. Germany's economy is at risk.

As the Fed tried to balance inflationary and financial pressures, its latest hike appeared almost dovish compared to past decisions.

Though union membership rates decreased last year, labor actions notably increased. What empowered workers in 2022?

Silicon Valley Bank’s failure from a lightning-quick bank run on March 10, the second largest in US history, has spooked financial markets.

In February, the U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. Job gains and the labor market overall remain very strong.

The Canadian economy added 22,000 jobs last month. Though subdued compared to January, this data shows continued labor market strength.

In the UK, consumer confidence and business sentiment are gradually increasing, as the economy continues to evade a massive downturn.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in hotter than expected in January, suggesting inflation will be hard to shake in 2023.

Tuesday's report was a reminder of two key things: inflation is not a single number, and never decide too much from a month’s worth of data.

While soft and hard data are disconnected in other countries, the United Kingdom is doing just as poorly as workers and businesses believe.

There is a confounding disconnect between soft and hard data in the US. Gloomy consumers and businesses created a "vibecession" last year, even though the hard data was strong.

Many forecasters have been predicting a large economic contraction for Germany in 2023 due to the spike in energy prices, but the economy has been surprisingly resilient until now.

The same tight labor market that has plagued recruiters in the past couple years has brought job seekers back into the fold, softening recruiting costs.

The U.S. economy added an astonishing 517,000 net new jobs in January; last month's jobs report was almost too good to be true.

The Bank of England's new economic projections show much less pessimism about the labor market and economic growth in the short term.

Wage growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022, encouraging news for Federal Reserve officials worried about too strong growth.

Inflation may be turning a corner but there are still some threats that could run it off the road, some of which are still unknown.

While a U.K. recession is highly likely, there is a lot of uncertainty on how deep and prolonged the economic downturn will be.

Even though the British economy is in a downturn, the labor market might hold up better this time than during the typical recession, especially since there is still a shortage of blue-collar jobs due to Brexit.

Today's inflation will determine tomorrow's labor market. What does the latest CPI report mean for 2023's economy?

The U.S. job market ended 2022 with better-than-expected job growth, a 50-year low in the unemployment rate, and encouraging wage growth trends for the Fed’s fight against inflation

For recruiters, 2022 has been a confusing years. What economic trends contributed to the difficult recruitment landscape this year?

This year, inflation may be a hot topic around the holiday table. Here’s what you need to know to engage meaningfully in these discussions.

Retail sales fell by 0.6% in November, suggesting the season of giving is turning into the season of cutting back.

The pace of price increases slowed in November, but Federal Reserve officials remain on edge, delivering pessimistic projections.

The U.S. job market may be too strong, despite headlines of tech layoffs and fears of recession. Employment gains exceeded expectations in November, while wage growth was super strong.

Job openings fell in October, continuing to suggest cooling in the labor market. However, both openings and quits remain historically elevated.

Inflation, even the less volatile core measure, cooled in October, which is encouraging news for both the Federal Reserve and consumers.

In October, 261,000 net new jobs were created – but the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.5 (which was a 50-year low).

Job openings jumped in September after a dramatic decrease the month before. But wider turnover trends hint at a slowly cooling labor market.

Our understanding of the economy is potentially at an inflection point. New data will give insights on the underlying calm of current chaos.

Early estimates of Q3 GDP show a rebound in growth, despite interest rate increases deterring housing market investment.

Discouraged by the state of recruiting in an overheated market, employers are hoarding labor as uncertainty mounts.

Rising core and services prices in September remind us that inflation will not go gentle into that good night.

The U.S. economy is facing three important shifts, but the labor market remains resilient, adding 263k jobs in September.

What would a potential recession look like in this period of high inflation and high labor demand? Looking back to 1973 may hold some clues.