Economy-wide breakdown
- At the start of 2025, the labor market looks solid. It grew at a steady rate, averaging 180,000 new jobs a month over a three-month average. Wage growth continues to moderate, trending towards 3.5% as inflationary wage pressures recede and the unemployment rate remains near a historical low of 4.2%.
- Under the hood, though, there are some issues. For one, hiring is very healthcare heavy. In March, 40% of private employment growth was concentrated in healthcare and private education. Outside of healthcare, most industries are experiencing uneven growth grappling with elevated interest rates and heightened uncertainty about trade policy.
- On April 2nd— or “Liberation Day”— President Trump issued a sweeping increase of tariffs that will bring the average U.S. tariff rate to the highest point in more than a century. It includes a 10% across-the-board tariff, affecting all foreign goods imports. The impending fallout from retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners across Europe and Asia will radically shift employment growth in goods-oriented industries like retail, transportation and manufacturing as consumer good prices rise in response to tariffs. Compromises may be reached, and tariffs levels could be lowered.
- In March, Appcast’s Chief Economist Andrew Flowers presented our outlook on the economy in the face of sweeping policy changes. Our base case is a slowdown in economic growth due to immigration and trade policy changes, but not a recession. However, over the past three months consumers’ expectations of inflation have risen rapidly while sentiment around the business environment has deteriorated – a serious warning sign about the future health of the economy. This environment is highly dynamic, and by the time you read this it may be out of date.
Read our economy-wide breakdown of the latest numbers.
Employment Trends
The first week of April has been a rough start to the second quarter for finance and insurance. The stock market has seen significant declines in response to higher tariffs. However, on April 9th President Trump announced a temporary 90-day pause to tariff actions providing some short-term relief. Longer-term uncertainty about trade policy still looms for the rest of the quarter.
Despite a volatile stock market, finance and insurance job growth was positive to start the year. The industry added a respectable 7,800 jobs over a three-month average. This is a much better outlook than in 2023, when the industry was grappling with consistent job losses.
Outside of securities and commodities (+2% year-over-year), job growth has been meager for the major finance and insurance subsectors. Insurance employment is growing at a tepid pace of just 0.4%, while real estate jobs just swung back into positive territory of 0.1%. Credit intermediation employment has been contracting for several months now, declining nearly a percent over the year.
Wage Trends
Wage growth has cooled across all subsectors for financial and insurance jobs. Wages for securities and insurance carriers both trend towards 3%. Credit intermediation wage growth has been very high recently, even briefly touching 7%, and now returning towards 6% and below. Wage growth for real estate workers is the lowest, now below 0.5%.
Openings and Turnover Trends
Employment growth has swung back into positive territory to start the year, which has pushed up the overall rate of hiring activity in the sector to above 2%. Job openings ticked down slightly to 4.2%, but this is a volatile metric. Attrition–or voluntary quits–continues to steadily decline to 1.1%. Layoffs increased in 2023 but have now returned to around 0.5%.
Recruitment Marketing Trends
The term “Long” or “ATS Apply” refers to the conventional application process, requiring applicants to manually submit their tailored application documents and personal details through the company’s website or an applicant tracking system (ATS). In many cases, applicants are required to create a company-specific account.
On the other hand, “Easy Apply” refers to a swift application process on a job board, often conducted through a smartphone. With a single click, essential information like the resume is transmitted directly to the company. Due to the simplicity of this application method, easy-apply metrics are not directly comparable to those of the long or ATS apply. The metrics are therefore presented separately.
Long Apply
After months of decline, recruiting costs in finance and insurance have ticked up slightly and appear to be stabilizing. The median cost-per-click (CPC) for both industries edged up to around $1.10 throughout the fall, while the median cost-per-application (CPA) now hovers closer to $13. This modest rise coincides with a slowdown in the growth of application rates, which surged past 8% last fall. As application activity levels off, recruitment costs seem to have found a new, slightly higher equilibrium.
Easy Apply
Mirroring broader apply method trends, recruiting costs for easy- (or short-) apply roles have moderated after previous declines. CPCs have held relatively steady, with finance roles slightly higher at $0.96 and insurance lower at $0.99. Cost-per-application (CPA) remains affordable, averaging around $4 across both sectors—underscoring easy-apply as a cost-effective channel for recruiters. While overall application rate growth has leveled off, finance has seen a notable spike in apply rates this season. In both sectors, job seekers continue to complete applications at a strong one-in-five rate, showcasing the continued efficiency of simplified apply flows.
Recruitment Marketing Forecast
Based on historical CPA patterns for finance and insurance jobs, both sectors are likely going to see stable pricing for the remainder of the year. Finance CPAs may slowly decline to below $10, while insurance prices will likely hover from the $10 to $12 range. Of course, this is uncertain in an unpredictable environment.
What does this mean for Finance and Insurance?
Volatility is nothing new to those in the finance and insurance industries—it’s a feature, not a bug, of the business cycle. But today’s uncertainty, which is driven by shifts in trade policy, stands apart from past downturns. The Great Recession stemmed from deep structural issues in the housing and financial systems. The dot-com crash followed an unsustainable boom in internet stocks. This time, the turbulence is policy-driven—meaning it could be reversed just as quickly as it began. For recruiters in finance and insurance, that distinction matters. While policy shifts may influence hiring demand in the short term, recruiting costs in these sectors have likely hit the floor. Don’t expect them to fall much further.
Forecasting Methodology
Cost-per-application (CPA) is forecasted one year ahead using the previous two years’ worth of one-month moving average data. A combination of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal naïve models are used to create an ensemble forecast. The forecast provides the 95th percentile confidence interval, indicating the likelihood that each value will be within the CPA range provided.