Economy-wide breakdown
- At the start of 2025, the labor market looks solid. It grew at a steady rate, averaging 180,000 new jobs a month over a three-month average. Wage growth continues to moderate, trending towards 3.5% as inflationary wage pressures recede and the unemployment rate remains near a historical low of 4.2%.
- Under the hood, though, there are some issues. For one, hiring is very healthcare heavy. In March, 40% of private employment growth was concentrated in healthcare and private education. Outside of healthcare, most industries are experiencing uneven growth grappling with elevated interest rates and heightened uncertainty about trade policy.
- On April 2nd— or “Liberation Day”— President Trump issued a sweeping increase of tariffs that will bring the average U.S. tariff rate to the highest point in more than a century. It includes a 10% across-the-board tariff, affecting all foreign goods imports. The impending fallout from retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners across Europe and Asia will radically shift employment growth in goods-oriented industries like retail, transportation and manufacturing as consumer good prices rise in response to tariffs. Compromises may be reached, and tariffs levels could be lowered.
- In March, Appcast’s Chief Economist Andrew Flowers presented our outlook on the economy in the face of sweeping policy changes. Our base case is a slowdown in economic growth due to immigration and trade policy changes, but not a recession. However, over the past three months consumers’ expectations of inflation have risen rapidly while sentiment around the business environment has deteriorated – a serious warning sign about the future health of the economy. This environment is highly dynamic, and by the time you read this it may be out of date.
Read our economy-wide breakdown of the latest numbers.
Employment Trends
The retail sector has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with heightened competition from e-commerce and elevated labor costs. Despite these headwinds, consumer spending has remained a consistent pillar of the U.S. economy.
Health & personal care retailers and general merchandise retailers have shown relatively stable employment changes with minor fluctuations. This stability indicates a consistent demand for health-related products and general merchandise, even in the face of economic uncertainties. The most recent data points to a 1.2% increase in employment for health & personal care and a 0.06% increase for general merchandise.
Food & beverage retailers exhibit a consistent trend with slight variations, reflecting steady consumer demand for essential goods. The latest data shows a 0.7% increase in employment.
Furnishing & home furnishing, however, demonstrates more volatility, especially around economic downturns. This category’s employment changes are more sensitive to economic conditions, with the most recent data indicating a -0.8% decrease in employment.
When it comes to employment growth, retail has experienced whiplash in recent months. There have been significant fluctuations in monthly employment changes, with notable peaks around January and May of each year. The most recent data points show a positive trend with values of 23,700 and 19,200 for the latest months. While this would typically indicate a potential recovery in retail employment, the long-term outlook may be grim.
Despite recent gains in retail employment, consumers have begun to curb their discretionary spending in anticipation of the new tariffs. This could adversely affect the retail hiring landscape in the coming months. The biggest uncertainty heading into the next quarter lies in the potential downstream impacts of tariffs on import prices. As tariffs take effect, if they do take effect, they could drive up the cost of imported goods, putting pressure on consumers.
Wage Trends
Health & personal care and furnishing & home furnishing have shown notable fluctuations in wage growth over time. As of the latest data point in 2025, health & personal care wages are growing at a rate of 5.3%, while furnishing & home furnishing’s sit at 2.3%, respectively. This indicates strong consumer demand for health-related products and home furnishings, driving wage increases in these subsectors.
Wage growth for food & beverage are currently at 3.2%, while general merchandise workers have a wage growth of 2.4%. This stability reflects steady consumer demand for essential goods and general merchandise, even in the face of economic uncertainties.
Overall, the sustained wage growth demonstrates the strength of the American consumer despite elevated inflation over the past two years.
Openings and Turnover Trends
In 2024, the retail industry experienced a sharp decline in the number of workers quitting their jobs compared to 2022. The quit rate downward trend continues, now at 2.4%. However, with the recent uptick in consumer spending, openings and hires have increased 3.5% and 4%, respectively. Layoffs and discharges have remained relatively low, staying below 2%, suggesting cautious employer behavior.
While 2024 saw a decline in job openings and hires due to reduced quit rates, 2025 presents a mixed outlook with strong consumer demand offering potential for growth, but the impact of potential tariffs weighs negatively on the sector.
Recruitment Marketing Trends
The term “long” or “ATS apply” refers to the conventional application process, requiring applicants to manually submit their tailored application documents and personal details through the company’s website or an applicant tracking system (ATS). In many cases, applicants are required to create a company-specific account.
On the other hand, “easy apply” refers to a swift application process on a job board, often conducted through a smartphone. With a single click, essential information like the resume is transmitted directly to the company. Due to the simplicity of this application method, easy apply metrics are not directly comparable to those of the “long” or ATS apply. The metrics are therefore presented separately.
Long Apply
In 2025, the retail industry continues a trending decline in recruiting costs, driven by increased job seeker interest and a reduction in job postings. The median cost-per-click (CPC) is just over a dollar, while the median cost-per-application remained stable at under $12 during the last quarter. These low and stable recruiting costs were supported by an overall upward trend in apply rates, peaking at approximately 8%.
Easy Apply
Recruiting costs have come down not only for traditional apply methods, but for easy-apply methods as well. CPCs are stable and remain below the dollar, and CPAs are trending below $3. Now, nearly 30% of job seekers complete an application, which has been pushing down costs.
Recruitment Marketing Forecast
Given heightened uncertainty regarding the path the economy will take for the rest of the year, our CPA forecast indicates prices will not decline nor rise much through the summer. However, policy can change rapidly and prices with it as well.
What does this mean for recruiting in retail?
Retail recruiting could take two very different paths for the remainder of the year: tariffs are reduced or removed, bringing peace of mind for households and business and consumer spending isn’t reduced significantly, or tariffs increase the price of retail goods which causes consumers to reign in the spending. In the event of the first scenario, retail recruiting will likely look like last year. However, in the event of the second scenario, hiring demand could decline precipitously and make for a tougher 2025.
Forecasting Methodology
Cost-per-application (CPA) is forecasted two quarters ahead using the previous two years’ worth of one-month moving average data. A combination of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal naïve models are used to create an ensemble forecast. The forecast provides both the 95th percentile confidence intervals, indicating the likelihood that each value will be within the CPA range provided.