Conflicting Macro Data Causes Severe Headaches for the BoE

In the U.K., both wages and inflation came in hotter than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up and payroll jobs saw a steep decline, indicating a rapidly weakening labor market.

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The French economy has been outperforming thanks to fashionable exports, favorable demographics, and an attractive investment environment.

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We have expanded our reporting to cover Canada and the UK.

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In the U.K., both wages and inflation came in hotter than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up and payroll jobs saw a steep decline, indicating a rapidly weakening labor market.
4 minutes
The French economy has been outperforming thanks to fashionable exports, favorable demographics, and an attractive investment environment.
6 minutes
In a shift from the recent trend of a steadying labor market, Canada's job market experienced a setback in March, shedding 2,220 positions.
4 minutes
The U.S. labor market had another impressive month, but is the enduring growth too strong for the Federal Reserve?
3 minutes
Advanced economies are facing shrinking workforces. But the recent immigration surge is now throwing off some older population forecasts.
5 minutes
The U.K.’s economic downturn is currently affecting “sitting-down jobs” much more than “standing-up jobs”. The U.K. labor market is experiencing a white-collar recession.
5 minutes
The amount of sick leave in Germany can partially explain why Germany’s economy tipped into recession last year.
5 minutes
Canada's labor market rebounded in February, making impressive gains of 40,700 net new jobs in a high interest rate environment.
5 minutes
The U.S. labor market continues to defy gravity: with 275,000 net new jobs in February (beating expectations once again) job growth doesn’t appear to be “landing” at all.
3 minutes
After decades of stalling wage gains for the lowest earners, the U.S. is experiencing a dramatic wage compression.
5 minutes
Couples in different advanced economies face different opportunity costs when it comes to children, creating different pockets of DINKs across the globe.
4 minutes
Raising kids has become increasingly expensive but not necessarily in the way that you think. Women increasingly choose career over babies – welcome to the DINK phenomenon.
4 minutes
Despite the robust job market, recent college graduates face greater challenges in securing employment than the rest of the population.
4 minutes
GDP data confirmed that the UK slipped into recession in the second half of 2023. The BoE needs to reverse course quickly or else face a more severe downturn.
5 minutes
Pinpointing a national downturn is difficult enough, but knowing whether a state is in a recession or not is even more tricky.
5 minutes
The Canadian labor market made some impressive employment gains in January, but trouble is still brewing under the surface.
4 minutes
The jobs market added a surprisingly strong 353,000 net new jobs in January, while the unemployment rate remained low at 3.7%.
4 minutes
Brexit may have created barriers to trading goods for the U.K., but it might also create an opportunity to become a service export superpower.
4 minutes
Data revisions have subtracted more than 400,000 jobs throughout 2023, something that Fed policymakers should keep an eye on.
5 minutes
OECD countries have seen a surge in migration recently. In the future, expect permanently higher migration flows due to new factors at work.
5 minutes
Overall GDP growth in the U.K. has been steady, but the increase is driven by population growth, rather than productivity and income growth.
4 minutes
Canada's economy ended 2023 with weak job gains and a significant slowdown. As we move into 2024, the outlook doesn't look great.
4 minutes
Since the pandemic started, stability has been lacking in the labor market. The outlook for 2024 looks much more normal.
4 minutes
The United Kingdom's economic outlook is only slightly more uncertain than its current status, which is bad news for the central bank.
5 minutes
The outlook for the Eurozone is not looking positive for 2024, especially if the European Central Bank continues on its current path.
5 minutes
The American jobs market once again saw impressive gains in November, as shown in a jobs report that supported the soft landing narrative.
3 minutes
Recent developments have contributed to impressive labor force outcomes for disabled workers, but are they permanent or transient solutions?
4 minutes
The Canadian labor market added 25,000 new jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.8%.
3 minutes
Will the proposed tax cuts from the U.K. government's actually boost economic growth or is their usefulness overstated in nominal terms?
5 minutes
Employees desire meaningful work, but not every worker finds purpose within their professions. What can employers do to help curate purpose?
5 minutes
Though more and more people are graduating from college, the U.K. labor market has a troubling graduate skill premium.
5 minutes
Rapidly rising interest rates didn't create the big economic downturn that many forecasters predicted. How did the economy avoid a recession?
4 minutes
BoE officials have made it clear that they are now willing to sacrifice the labor market to bring down inflation, but the official numbers are unreliable.
5 minutes
Many assume young workers are driving the push towards remote work, but age alone does not determine whether one is working onsite or not.
4 minutes
The strikes in the auto industry impacted job growth this month, as the labor market added 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
3 minutes
The Canadian labor market grew by 18,000 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate increased. The labor market is certainly cooling.
3 minutes
A century ago, John Maynard Keynes envisioned a future world where a 15-hour work week was the norm. Was he really so far off the mark?
4 minutes
U.S. GDP growth was a startlingly strong 4.9% in Q3, driven by consumer spending. This level of growth is very far from recession territory.
4 minutes
Recently Federal Reserve data reveals that Americans are wealthier than ever. Net worth, adjusted for inflation, surged during the pandemic.
4 minutes
The risks to quantitative easing are benign during anemic recoveries. In this period of high inflation, it could results in bad losses.
5 minutes
Job growth surprised again in Canada last month, but strong wage growth complicates things for the Bank of Canada's fight against inflation.
3 minutes
The U.S. economy added 336,000 net new jobs in September, proving that the labor market remains strong despite recession fears.
3 minutes
Time has run out on the pandemic-era child care funding program. That presents a challenge to working parents and child care providers across the country.
3 minutes
Corporate greed has been wrongly blamed for this bout of inflation. Greedflation isn't the problem. Excess growth and labor shortages are.
5 minutes
Is this the moment of resurgence for cities and states in the Rust Belt that suffered in recent decades due to the "China Shock"?
4 minutes
Inflation has subsided, while the economy has been surprisingly strong. A soft landing looks likely, but there are still some risks.
5 minutes
Organized labor has been the hottest trend lately, earning the name "hot labor summer." But this era of labor activity is far from over.
4 minutes
The story of the United Kingdom's economy lately has been one of disaster, but recent revisions may have changed the narrative.
4 minutes
Canada's labor market is cooling, but population growth in the country remains strong. Unemployed workers face a more difficult hiring landscape.
2 minutes
High frequency indicators allow economists to gauge economic performance in real-time and they are pointing at a German contraction.
5 minutes

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