Economist Sam Kuhn breaks down the macroeconomic headwinds impacting U.S. retail hiring over the holidays, with guidance for recruiters.

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recruitonomics

Recruitonomics is a hub for data-driven research that aims to make sense of our evolving world of work.

#US

What You’ll Find: Economic trends and conditions in the United States, how these affect the labor market, and main takeaways from important US data releases.

All #US Stories

The United States labor market has been impressively strong for some time, but is this the best labor market ever? Not quite.
4 minutes
The labor market started the year off with a bang, but in April, the jobs report showed more humble gains and industry surprises.
3 minutes
According to a new report, the United States continues to be a top destination for international talent seeking opportunities abroad.
4 minutes
The U.S. labor market had another impressive month, but is the enduring growth too strong for the Federal Reserve?
3 minutes
The U.S. labor market continues to defy gravity: with 275,000 net new jobs in February (beating expectations once again) job growth doesn’t appear to be “landing” at all.
3 minutes
After decades of stalling wage gains for the lowest earners, the U.S. is experiencing a dramatic wage compression.
5 minutes
Despite the robust job market, recent college graduates face greater challenges in securing employment than the rest of the population.
4 minutes
Pinpointing a national downturn is difficult enough, but knowing whether a state is in a recession or not is even more tricky.
5 minutes
The jobs market added a surprisingly strong 353,000 net new jobs in January, while the unemployment rate remained low at 3.7%.
4 minutes
Data revisions have subtracted more than 400,000 jobs throughout 2023, something that Fed policymakers should keep an eye on.
5 minutes
OECD countries have seen a surge in migration recently. In the future, expect permanently higher migration flows due to new factors at work.
5 minutes
Since the pandemic started, stability has been lacking in the labor market. The outlook for 2024 looks much more normal.
4 minutes
The American jobs market once again saw impressive gains in November, as shown in a jobs report that supported the soft landing narrative.
3 minutes
Recent developments have contributed to impressive labor force outcomes for disabled workers, but are they permanent or transient solutions?
4 minutes
Employees desire meaningful work, but not every worker finds purpose within their professions. What can employers do to help curate purpose?
5 minutes
Rapidly rising interest rates didn't create the big economic downturn that many forecasters predicted. How did the economy avoid a recession?
4 minutes
Many assume young workers are driving the push towards remote work, but age alone does not determine whether one is working onsite or not.
4 minutes
The strikes in the auto industry impacted job growth this month, as the labor market added 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
3 minutes
A century ago, John Maynard Keynes envisioned a future world where a 15-hour work week was the norm. Was he really so far off the mark?
4 minutes
U.S. GDP growth was a startlingly strong 4.9% in Q3, driven by consumer spending. This level of growth is very far from recession territory.
4 minutes
Recently Federal Reserve data reveals that Americans are wealthier than ever. Net worth, adjusted for inflation, surged during the pandemic.
4 minutes
The U.S. economy added 336,000 net new jobs in September, proving that the labor market remains strong despite recession fears.
3 minutes
Time has run out on the pandemic-era child care funding program. That presents a challenge to working parents and child care providers across the country.
3 minutes
Corporate greed has been wrongly blamed for this bout of inflation. Greedflation isn't the problem. Excess growth and labor shortages are.
5 minutes
Is this the moment of resurgence for cities and states in the Rust Belt that suffered in recent decades due to the "China Shock"?
4 minutes
Inflation has subsided, while the economy has been surprisingly strong. A soft landing looks likely, but there are still some risks.
5 minutes
Organized labor has been the hottest trend lately, earning the name "hot labor summer." But this era of labor activity is far from over.
4 minutes
The U.S. labor market is clearly cooling. In August, the economy added 187,000 net new jobs and the gains in June and July were revised down.
3 minutes
America’s history is rooted in an open immigration policy – and owes much of its economic success to it.
4 minutes
Advanced economies are experiencing very tight labor markets. This worker shortage has implications for hiring. Recruiters are increasingly poaching employees rather than recruiting from a shrinking pool of unemployed, which has implications for monetary policy.
8 minutes
The U.S. labor market added a moderate 187,000 net new jobs in July and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%.
4 minutes
American college students have shared which employers they want to work for. Discover the most popular employment destinations today!
3 minutes
The U.S. labor market is slowing, gradually. In June, the US economy added 209,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6%.
4 minutes
The global manufacturing industry is being hurt by a shift in consumer preferences, especially in Europe.
5 minutes
The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle posed a threat to the manufacturing and construction sectors, but the industries have remained strong.
3 minutes
After ten consecutive increases, the Federal Reserve paused its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, easing recession fears.
3 minutes
Maybe the U.S. job market’s hot streak isn’t slowing after all! The labor market defied expectations once again, adding 339,000 jobs in May.
4 minutes
Political polarization is hurting the U.S. economy. The debt ceiling standoff is just the latest – and most dangerous – example.
4 minutes
Employment growth in the food services and healthcare sectors has remained strong, which could help the labor market withstand a recession.
3 minutes
Recent cooling in the economy has contributed to softer price increases in the headline numbers, but inflation remains fairly stubborn.
2 minutes
The jobs market remains strong! In April, payroll employment rose by 253,000 and the unemployment rate fell to a half-century low of 3.4%.
4 minutes
A tight labor market continues to deliver steady income growth, even in the face of entrenched inflation; that income growth is powering consumer spending, and that spending is holding up an otherwise lackluster economy.
4 minutes
Weekly initial unemployment claims rose slightly, but remain low and relatively flat. The labor market is cooling, but remains resilient.
2 minutes
Inflation is cooling overall, but housing inflation remains stubbornly high. This neutral report underscores the pressure still on the Fed.
3 minutes
Since 2020, recruiting has been difficult. In 2023, recruitment pressures have eased, reducing cost-per-application and cost-per-click.
4 minutes
The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, signs of a strong but cooling labor market. This is what the Fed wants to see to justify the ending its cycle of rate hikes.
3 minutes
The natural rate of unemployment is a key economic variable used by the Federal Reserve to assess the stance of monetary policy and economic growth, but it was overestimated for years.
4 minutes
Though a majority of economists expect a recession in 2023, some still believe in a soft landing scenario. Here's Recruitonomics' case for no recession.
4 minutes
A majority of economists believe a recession is likely in 2023, but they may not have enough faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting abilities.
5 minutes
As the Fed tried to balance inflationary and financial pressures, its latest hike appeared almost dovish compared to past decisions.
3 minutes

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