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The natural rate of unemployment is a key economic variable used by the Federal Reserve to assess the stance of monetary policy and economic growth, but it was overestimated for years.

Though a majority of economists expect a recession in 2023, some still believe in a soft landing scenario. Here's Recruitonomics' case for no recession.

A majority of economists believe a recession is likely in 2023, but they may not have enough faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting abilities.

The difference between the central bank and the OBR reflects diverging assumptions about employment, worker productivity, and business investment.

Financial volatility has returned to the Eurozone, but the central bank continued to hike interest rates to fight inflation. Germany's economy is at risk.

As the Fed tried to balance inflationary and financial pressures, its latest hike appeared almost dovish compared to past decisions.

Though union membership rates decreased last year, labor actions notably increased. What empowered workers in 2022?

The post-pandemic labor market has been extremely tight with many vacancies left unfilled.

Silicon Valley Bank’s failure from a lightning-quick bank run on March 10, the second largest in US history, has spooked financial markets.

In February, the U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. Job gains and the labor market overall remain very strong.

The Canadian economy added 22,000 jobs last month. Though subdued compared to January, this data shows continued labor market strength.

In 2022, the labor market was unpredictable. The labor market rebalance in 2023 will see a return to center for "out of whack" industries.

In the UK, consumer confidence and business sentiment are gradually increasing, as the economy continues to evade a massive downturn.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in hotter than expected in January, suggesting inflation will be hard to shake in 2023.

Economic growth in the United Kingdom depends on the strength of the labor force. But Brexit, demographic declines, and long-term health issues threaten that strength.

At the onset of the pandemic, females in the workforce suffered. From February to April 2020, prime-age labor force participation among women plummeted 3.5 percentage points, from 77% to 73.5%.

Tuesday's report was a reminder of two key things: inflation is not a single number, and never decide too much from a month’s worth of data.

While soft and hard data are disconnected in other countries, the United Kingdom is doing just as poorly as workers and businesses believe.

There is a confounding disconnect between soft and hard data in the US. Gloomy consumers and businesses created a "vibecession" last year, even though the hard data was strong.

Many forecasters have been predicting a large economic contraction for Germany in 2023 due to the spike in energy prices, but the economy has been surprisingly resilient until now.

The same tight labor market that has plagued recruiters in the past couple years has brought job seekers back into the fold, softening recruiting costs.

The U.S. economy added an astonishing 517,000 net new jobs in January; last month's jobs report was almost too good to be true.

The Bank of England's new economic projections show much less pessimism about the labor market and economic growth in the short term.

Wage growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022, encouraging news for Federal Reserve officials worried about too strong growth.

Inflation may be turning a corner but there are still some threats that could run it off the road, some of which are still unknown.

While a U.K. recession is highly likely, there is a lot of uncertainty on how deep and prolonged the economic downturn will be.

Even though the British economy is in a downturn, the labor market might hold up better this time than during the typical recession, especially since there is still a shortage of blue-collar jobs due to Brexit.

In the past two years, wage growth has been dramatic for low-wage workers, reducing inequality. Can this trend continue into 2023? 

Today's inflation will determine tomorrow's labor market. What does the latest CPI report mean for 2023's economy?

Demand in the manufacturing sector has withstood the Federal Reserve's combative monetary policy. Because of consumer spending and new investments, employment growth in the sector has been better than ever.

The U.S. job market ended 2022 with better-than-expected job growth, a 50-year low in the unemployment rate, and encouraging wage growth trends for the Fed’s fight against inflation

For recruiters, 2022 has been a confusing years. What economic trends contributed to the difficult recruitment landscape this year?

This year, inflation may be a hot topic around the holiday table. Here’s what you need to know to engage meaningfully in these discussions.

Retail sales fell by 0.6% in November, suggesting the season of giving is turning into the season of cutting back.

The pace of price increases slowed in November, but Federal Reserve officials remain on edge, delivering pessimistic projections.

Big tech companies have announced historic layoffs in the past month, but recent data proves that they are not the whole industry.

The U.S. job market may be too strong, despite headlines of tech layoffs and fears of recession. Employment gains exceeded expectations in November, while wage growth was super strong.

Job openings fell in October, continuing to suggest cooling in the labor market. However, both openings and quits remain historically elevated.

Warehousing suffered in October, reflecting the shifting preferences of consumers towards services and away from goods. The sector lost 20,000 jobs, its worst month since April 2020.

A survey of worker power in three large economies shows that benefits of the tight labor market are not equivalent.

Recently, major tech companies have engaged in devastating layoffs. But, the tech sector is still adding jobs and jobless claims remain low.

Pay transparency laws are sweeping the nation and changing the world of recruiting. How do these shifting norms impacts recruiters?

Inflation, even the less volatile core measure, cooled in October, which is encouraging news for both the Federal Reserve and consumers.

The elevated quits rate in retail allows employers to naturally decrease the size of their workforces just by cutting back on hiring.

In October, 261,000 net new jobs were created – but the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.5 (which was a 50-year low).

The Federal Reserve is working hard to slow the economy, but consistent rate hikes have yet to curb inflation.

Job openings jumped in September after a dramatic decrease the month before. But wider turnover trends hint at a slowly cooling labor market.

Our understanding of the economy is potentially at an inflection point. New data will give insights on the underlying calm of current chaos.

Early estimates of Q3 GDP show a rebound in growth, despite interest rate increases deterring housing market investment.

Healthcare openings are declining, but recruiting costs remain stubbornly high.