All #Andrew Flowers Stories

The U.S. labor market had another impressive month, but is the enduring growth too strong for the Federal Reserve?

The U.S. labor market continues to defy gravity: with 275,000 net new jobs in February (beating expectations once again) job growth doesn’t appear to be “landing” at all.

Will ChatGPT be labor-augmenting or labor-displacing? The technology has the potential to create a new type of laborer: the Centaur Worker.

Since the pandemic started, stability has been lacking in the labor market. The outlook for 2024 looks much more normal.

The strikes in the auto industry impacted job growth this month, as the labor market added 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.

U.S. GDP growth was a startlingly strong 4.9% in Q3, driven by consumer spending. This level of growth is very far from recession territory.

Inflation has subsided, while the economy has been surprisingly strong. A soft landing looks likely, but there are still some risks.

The U.S. labor market is clearly cooling. In August, the economy added 187,000 net new jobs and the gains in June and July were revised down.

The U.S. labor market is slowing, gradually. In June, the US economy added 209,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6%.

After ten consecutive increases, the Federal Reserve paused its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, easing recession fears.

Maybe the U.S. job market’s hot streak isn’t slowing after all! The labor market defied expectations once again, adding 339,000 jobs in May.

Political polarization is hurting the U.S. economy. The debt ceiling standoff is just the latest – and most dangerous – example.

The jobs market remains strong! In April, payroll employment rose by 253,000 and the unemployment rate fell to a half-century low of 3.4%.

A tight labor market continues to deliver steady income growth, even in the face of entrenched inflation; that income growth is powering consumer spending, and that spending is holding up an otherwise lackluster economy.

The U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, signs of a strong but cooling labor market. This is what the Fed wants to see to justify the ending its cycle of rate hikes.

Though a majority of economists expect a recession in 2023, some still believe in a soft landing scenario. Here's Recruitonomics' case for no recession.

A majority of economists believe a recession is likely in 2023, but they may not have enough faith in the Fed's inflation-fighting abilities.

Silicon Valley Bank’s failure from a lightning-quick bank run on March 10, the second largest in US history, has spooked financial markets.

In February, the U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. Job gains and the labor market overall remain very strong.

There is a confounding disconnect between soft and hard data in the US. Gloomy consumers and businesses created a "vibecession" last year, even though the hard data was strong.

The U.S. economy added an astonishing 517,000 net new jobs in January; last month's jobs report was almost too good to be true.

Wage growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022, encouraging news for Federal Reserve officials worried about too strong growth.

Today's inflation will determine tomorrow's labor market. What does the latest CPI report mean for 2023's economy?

The U.S. job market ended 2022 with better-than-expected job growth, a 50-year low in the unemployment rate, and encouraging wage growth trends for the Fed’s fight against inflation

The U.S. job market may be too strong, despite headlines of tech layoffs and fears of recession. Employment gains exceeded expectations in November, while wage growth was super strong.

In October, 261,000 net new jobs were created – but the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.5 (which was a 50-year low).

Our understanding of the economy is potentially at an inflection point. New data will give insights on the underlying calm of current chaos.

Rising core and services prices in September remind us that inflation will not go gentle into that good night.

The U.S. economy is facing three important shifts, but the labor market remains resilient, adding 263k jobs in September.

In August, job openings fell dramatically. The tight labor market of the last two years may finally be cooling off without layoffs increasing.

Moderating wage gains, an increased labor force participation rate, and steady employment gains make for an encouraging August jobs report.

The July jobs report obliterated expectations, with 528,000 net new jobs. This marks a full employment recovery from the COVID-19 recession.

Over 2.7 million people were hired in the first half of 2022 – a shockingly good number. Yet there seems to be a chorus of negative economic news recently.

The Fed is happy to see strong payroll gains and moderating wage growth in the June jobs report. Payroll gains of 372,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6% is simply a great jobs report.

No, not yet. Higher worker pay isn’t the main culprit behind inflation, but some warning signs suggest that could be the case later this year.

The U.S. economy added a solid 390,000 net new jobs in May 2022. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, nearly a 50-year low.

Employers are still desperate for workers. Layoffs are rare, despite anecdotes to the contrary. Quitting remained elevated, but the “Great Resignation” isn’t getting worse (for now).

Demand for workers is about 60% above its pre-COVID level. The paradox is that while the U.K. labour market is extremely ‘tight’ – a good thing for workers – those same workers are suffering from a cost of living crisis.

How does economic growth happen? It’s a hard question to answer but economists have tried for centuries. Perhaps the most famous model came from MIT economist Robert Solow in 1956. The Solow growth model specifies three factors that fuel growth: productivity, capital, and labor. 

Despite ongoing conflict in Europe and the highest inflationary period since the early 1980’s, the US labor market continues to grow briskly.

It’s Teacher Appreciation Week, but some educators aren’t feeling so appreciated.

Prices are rising – fast. After nearly three decades of stable prices, the US economy is experiencing a surge of inflation.

Welcome to Recruitonomics, a destination for data-driven insights to make sense of an evolving world of work.

Recruiting became less expensive in Q1 2022, despite it being a workers’ market.

After the initial COVID shock to the US economy, the bounceback in job growth has been remarkable. There remains an unsatiated appetite to hire by US employers.

In the period after a peak Omicron surge and before war broke out in Eastern Europe, the US labor market recovery accelerated, as hiring ramped up and more people returned to the labor force.

Employers face stiff competition for workers amid labour shortages.

The COVID recession that began in 2020 and the subsequent recovery through 2021 has been unlike anything in U.S. economic history.

The U.S. economy added a shocking 467,000 net new jobs in January 2022, far above expectations, despite the surge of Omicron cases that saw 15 million people get COVID last month.

Workers who want a job are getting them, but employer demand is slowing a bit from the frenetic pace of job gains earlier in 2021.