#Julius Probst, PhD

All #Julius Probst, PhD Stories

The UK Labor Market Turns Sour Amidst a Surge in GDP

#Labor Markets # UK

16 May 25

Despite the United Kingdom's strong GDP growth in the first quarter, the UK labor market continues to struggle.

5 minutes

Why the German Government Wants to Help Your Favorite Restaurant

#Leisure and Hospitality # Germany

06 May 25

Restaurants in Germany are struggling, but the government wants to support the industry through a reduction in the VAT.

5 minutes

Britain has a Hidden Unemployment Crisis, Especially for Young Workers

#Labor Markets # Demographics # UK

25 Apr 25

In the United Kingdom, more and more people are leaving the labor force and being classified as inactive workers.

6 minutes

The Stock Market is Not NOT the Economy: Financial Crashes and the Labor Market

#Labor Markets # Macroeconomy # US

09 Apr 25

The volatility in the stock market over the last week has been staggering, but does a crash cause a broader labor market downturn?

5 minutes

Germany’s €1 Trillion Bazooka: What Does it Mean for the Labor Market?

#Labor Markets # Germany # Macroeconomy

19 Mar 25

Germany has long been the poster child of fiscal conservatism, but new fiscal spending plans could transform the country.

4 minutes

Can Increased Defense Spending Save the German Economy?

#Germany # Macroeconomy

11 Mar 25

A new German government has charted a path out of Germany's current economic stagnation, but can defense spending really save the day?

6 minutes

Ongoing and Worse Than We Thought: The White-Collar Downturn

#Finance & Insurance # Technology # World

28 Feb 25

Last month's revised jobs data confirmed that the white-collar downturn in 2024 was worse than previously understood.

5 minutes

Tight Labor Markets are a Strong Pull Factor for Immigrants

#US # Europe # Macroeconomy # UK

14 Feb 25

Tight labor markets in the United Kingdom, United States, and Spain attracted higher levels of immigrants in recent years.

5 minutes

Some UK Workers Won’t Work Overtime: Blame Tax Insanity!

#Macroeconomy # UK

30 Jan 25

The United Kingdom's tax system, including high marginal tax rates, is preventing the economy from reaching its full potential.

6 minutes

Eastern Europe’s Growth Miracle, Delivered by the EU

#Labor Markets # Europe # Macroeconomy

16 Jan 25

After joining the European Union two decades ago, Eastern Europe's growth has become one of the greatest economic success stories of our time.

6 minutes

How this Grinchy Jobs Report Stole Christmas

#Labor Markets # UK

19 Dec 24

The latest United Kingdom jobs report was not as jolly as we would like.

4 minutes

Weak Consumers are Holding Back Europe’s Largest Economies

#Macroeconomy # Europe # Germany # UK

13 Dec 24

European consumers are saving more and spending less, impeding economic recovery across the continent. But real wage growth may be to blame.

7 minutes

A Decent (but Boring) Report to Round Out 2024

#Labor Markets # News # US

06 Dec 24

The U.S. economy added 227,000 net new jobs in November, confirming that October's weakness was a blip caused by external factors.

3 minutes

What Does the Trump Victory Mean for the UK Economy?

#News # Election Coverage # UK

27 Nov 24

Ironically, British deindustrialization, which has long been a deterrent to growth, may make the U.K. more competitive in a Trump-era Europe.

5 minutes

What Does the Trump Victory Mean for the German Economy?

#Labor Markets # Election Coverage # Germany

22 Nov 24

The election of Donald Trump will have profound impacts on European economies. We explore the potential impact on German labor markets.

6 minutes

The UK Labor Market is Cooling, But Worker Churn Has Frozen

#Labor Markets # UK

13 Nov 24

The United Kingdom latest employment data will worry the BoE and the new government, especially the low level of worker churn.

5 minutes

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Three Takeaways from the UK Autumn Budget

#UK # Macroeconomy

08 Nov 24

The Autumn Budget was one of the most important in decades, as the measures will materially change the U.K. macroeconomic outlook.

7 minutes

Recruitonomics Swing State Election Analysis: Pennsylvania

#Labor Markets # Election Coverage # US

04 Nov 24

As the election fast approaches, we look at the economic and demographic dynamics in Pennsylvania, a key swing state.

6 minutes

Recruitonomics Swing State Election Analysis: Arizona

#US # Demographics # Election Coverage

25 Oct 24

The outcome of the U.S. election will be determined by swing states, including Arizona. We look at the economic outlook for this state.

6 minutes

Germany’s Manufacturing Sector Imperiled by China Shock

#Labor Markets # Germany # Manufacturing

20 Sep 24

The German car manufacturing sector has weakened considerably recently. Many factors are at play, and the China shock is one of them.

7 minutes

White-Collar Gloom, Blue-Collar Bloom

#Labor Markets # Demographics # US

11 Sep 24

The hiring boom following the pandemic has stalled. The U.S. labor market is currently experiencing a white-collar recession.

8 minutes

Data Revisions Subtract More Than 800,000 Jobs: What Now?

#Labor Markets # News # US

29 Aug 24

Recent data revisions point towards a weaker labor market, but data uncertainty is higher than before the pandemic.

6 minutes

Is the Skills Gap Getting Worse in the UK?

#Labor Markets # Recruiting # UK

23 Aug 24

The number of skill-shortage vacancies in the U.K. has surged in recent years, particularly for blue-collar occupations that are affected by Brexit.

6 minutes

The Great Reallocation: Can Worker Churn Explain the Productivity Burst?

#Labor Markets # Europe # Recruiting # US

14 Aug 24

The U.S. labor market experienced a worker reallocation shock during the pandemic, possibly contributing to the productivity boost.

7 minutes

Will Texas be the New California?

#Labor Markets # Manufacturing # US # Warehousing

08 Aug 24

Texas’ economy is experiencing a massive economic boom. YIMBY housing policies, a large inflow of workers, and friendshoring are fueling the state’s high growth rates.

5 minutes

The Long Shadow of Deindustrialization

#Manufacturing # UK

26 Jul 24

Rapid deindustrialization in the U.K. led to massive employment losses in the manufacturing sector in the 80s and 90s. Those effects can still be felt today.

5 minutes

Latest Jobs Report Reframes the United Kingdom’s Outlook

#Labor Markets # UK

19 Jul 24

4 minutes

The Real Deal With Real Wages and Productivity

#Labor Markets # Demographics # US

12 Jul 24

It's a popular misconception that real wages have stagnated for decades. The data that backs this uses inappropriate inflation data.

4 minutes

Climate Change Is Today’s Economic Problem, Not Tomorrow’s

#Labor Markets # Europe # Germany # UK

28 Jun 24

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is already negatively impacting European economies and labor markets.

5 minutes

Can Weight Loss Drugs Boost Economic Growth?

#Labor Markets # Demographics # Europe # Macroeconomy # US

21 Jun 24

Workers’ health has been deteriorating and economic costs are rising due to the obesity epidemic. Weight loss drugs can help reverse these negative trends.

5 minutes

The Diverging Job Numbers – And Which One is Correct

#Labor Markets # News # US

13 Jun 24

Two surveys offer the primary insights into the labor market, but recently, the job numbers they offer have been diverging.

5 minutes

The ECB Should Disregard High German Wage Growth… For Now

#Macroeconomy # Europe # Germany

05 Jun 24

High interest rates in the Europe have stifled economic growth. High German wage growth is a risk, but the ECB should continue to ease policy.

5 minutes

The Minimum Wage Has Leveled Pay in the UK

#Labor Markets # UK

15 May 24

Income inequality in the U.K. has fallen. Wage stagnation at the top combined with large increases in the minimum wage can help explain why.

6 minutes

When was the Best Labor Market for US Workers?

#Labor Markets # US

09 May 24

The United States labor market has been impressively strong for some time, but is this the best labor market ever? Not quite.

4 minutes

Spain’s Economy is Enjoying a Comeback

#Europe # Leisure and Hospitality

02 May 24

Spain’s decade-long depression finally seems to be over. The country is enjoying a labor market recovery and a tourism boom.

5 minutes

Seven Facts About UK Migration

#Demographics # UK

26 Apr 24

The U.K. has experienced a surge in immigration lately, so we gathered seven facts about the current state of immigration.

4 minutes

Conflicting Macro Data Causes Severe Headaches for the BoE

#Labor Markets # Macroeconomy # UK

18 Apr 24

In the U.K., both wages and inflation came in hotter than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up and payroll jobs saw a steep decline, indicating a rapidly weakening labor market.

4 minutes

Weapons, Wine, and Beauty Products: The French Economy is Hot

#Labor Markets # Europe # Macroeconomy

10 Apr 24

The French economy has been outperforming thanks to fashionable exports, favorable demographics, and an attractive investment environment.

6 minutes

Immigration Unexpectedly Thwarts the Population Time Bomb

#Labor Markets # Demographics # Germany # Macroeconomy # UK

28 Mar 24

Advanced economies are facing shrinking workforces. But the recent immigration surge is now throwing off some older population forecasts.

5 minutes

The UK is in the Midst of a White-Collar Recession

#Labor Markets # Demographics # Macroeconomy # UK

22 Mar 24

The U.K.’s economic downturn is currently affecting “sitting-down jobs” much more than “standing-up jobs”. The U.K. labor market is experiencing a white-collar recession.

5 minutes

Germany, Literally the Sick Man of Europe

#Germany # Macroeconomy

15 Mar 24

The amount of sick leave in Germany can partially explain why Germany’s economy tipped into recession last year.

5 minutes

The Unexpected Wage Compression

#Labor Markets # Demographics # US

07 Mar 24

After decades of stalling wage gains for the lowest earners, the U.S. is experiencing a dramatic wage compression.

5 minutes

Where in the World are the DINKs?

#Demographics # World

01 Mar 24

Couples in different advanced economies face different opportunity costs when it comes to children, creating different pockets of DINKs across the globe.

4 minutes

Keeping Up With the DINKs

#Demographics # Macroeconomy # World

28 Feb 24

Raising kids has become increasingly expensive but not necessarily in the way that you think. Women increasingly choose career over babies – welcome to the DINK phenomenon.

4 minutes

The U.K. Slipped Into Recession: What Does That Mean for the Labor Market?

#Labor Markets # Macroeconomy # UK

21 Feb 24

GDP data confirmed that the UK slipped into recession in the second half of 2023. The BoE needs to reverse course quickly or else face a more severe downturn.

5 minutes

How Would We Know if a State is in a Recession?

#Labor Markets # Demographics # US

15 Feb 24

Pinpointing a national downturn is difficult enough, but knowing whether a state is in a recession or not is even more tricky.

5 minutes

Post-Brexit, the UK is Becoming a Service Export Superpower!

#UK # Labor Markets # World

01 Feb 24

Brexit may have created barriers to trading goods for the U.K., but it might also create an opportunity to become a service export superpower.

4 minutes

Revisions to the Job Numbers May Trouble the Fed

#Macroeconomy # US

23 Jan 24

Data revisions have subtracted more than 400,000 jobs throughout 2023, something that Fed policymakers should keep an eye on.

5 minutes

Push and Pull Factors: Migration to OECD Countries at Record High

#World # Demographics # Germany # UK # US

17 Jan 24

OECD countries have seen a surge in migration recently. In the future, expect permanently higher migration flows due to new factors at work.

5 minutes

UK’s GDP Growth Looks Nice on the Surface

#Macroeconomy # UK

09 Jan 24

Overall GDP growth in the U.K. has been steady, but the increase is driven by population growth, rather than productivity and income growth.

4 minutes

#Julius Probst, PhD

All #Julius Probst, PhD Stories

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