All #Julius Probst, PhD Stories

The recession that was revised away: new economic projections from the BoE no longer show an upcoming downturn in the United Kingdom.

How can a country with five million inhabitants distort the GDP of Europe, an economic area with more than 340 million people?

Unlike other advanced economies, the U.K. is experiencing particularly sticky inflation and the real possibility of a wage-price spiral.

Eurozone inflation remains too hot, but commodity prices and distorted supply chains are no longer the causes. It's excess demand.

Germany's once-strong economy is stagnating, partly due to a slowdown in industrial production, especially the decline in car production.

The natural rate of unemployment is a key economic variable used by the Federal Reserve to assess the stance of monetary policy and economic growth, but it was overestimated for years.

The difference between the central bank and the OBR reflects diverging assumptions about employment, worker productivity, and business investment.

Financial volatility has returned to the Eurozone, but the central bank continued to hike interest rates to fight inflation. Germany's economy is at risk.

The post-pandemic labor market has been extremely tight with many vacancies left unfilled.

In the UK, consumer confidence and business sentiment are gradually increasing, as the economy continues to evade a massive downturn.

Economic growth in the United Kingdom depends on the strength of the labor force. But Brexit, demographic declines, and long-term health issues threaten that strength.

While soft and hard data are disconnected in other countries, the United Kingdom is doing just as poorly as workers and businesses believe.

Many forecasters have been predicting a large economic contraction for Germany in 2023 due to the spike in energy prices, but the economy has been surprisingly resilient until now.

The Bank of England's new economic projections show much less pessimism about the labor market and economic growth in the short term.

While a U.K. recession is highly likely, there is a lot of uncertainty on how deep and prolonged the economic downturn will be.

Even though the British economy is in a downturn, the labor market might hold up better this time than during the typical recession, especially since there is still a shortage of blue-collar jobs due to Brexit.