So that’s a relief! Today we got old news — the September jobs report, a much-delayed release of data from the BLS following the government shutdown. It showed a surprising bounce-back of 119,000 jobs. We learned that the pre-shutdown job market wasn’t collapsing (as we’ve said before).
Let’s not bury the lede: this September gain is better-than-expected, the best since April. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 4.4% from 4.3% in August. There were downward revisions to July and August numbers, totaling 33,000 jobs. Now August, as well as June, have had negative employment changes — in other words, job losses. The 3-month moving average through September stands at over 62,000. That’s about half the pace seen in the Spring, but reassuring compared to what we saw before.
While old news, this report is clarifying in two respects. First, the job market wasn’t collapsing going into the government shutdown on October 1. Second, of the private sector data providers that stepped in to fill the BLS’ absence, Revelio Labs was closer to the mark than ADP — but neither was particularly accurate. Revelio estimated a 33,000 increase in September, whereas ADP put the decline at 29,000.
The industry mix of job growth was consistent with the past year’s trends. Healthcare gained 42,000 jobs, with gains in other in-person industries like food services and social assistance. Employment declined in transportation and warehousing by 25,000. The federal government shed jobs. Manufacturing is consistently declining, as are traditional white-collar jobs (such as professional and business services).
Yes, the unemployment rate rose, but for “good” reasons — on account of a surge in the labor force by 470,000 people. In other words, more potential workers came off from the sidelines and began looking for work. The labor force participation rate rose. Concerns about potential supply diminishing aren’t yet born out.
What does this mean for recruiters?
So, these new numbers just tell us the pre-shutdown job market wasn’t a disaster. However, it bears repeating once more: this is data that is more than two months old by now. And it completely misses the impact of the longest government shutdown in history. We’ll effectively get a double jobs report on Tuesday, December 16, when the BLS releases payroll data for both October and November. That report will likely be more consequential, recontextualizing today’s data and providing a better sense of the job market going into 2026.
