As the summer season kicks into high gear, recruiters are once again facing the complex task of setting hiring targets. This time, though, they have to do it against the backdrop of a more cautious consumer. While overall labor demand remains resilient, the story across hotels, restaurants, and air travel is more nuanced.
The state of travel
Leisure and hospitality has been one of the brighter spots in the labor market recently. The sector added 48,000 jobs in May, pushing its three-month average gain to nearly 41,000 — a solid pace of growth as employers gear up for peak vacation season. While headline job gains are encouraging, trade policy, consumer spending and travel patterns are adding layers of complexity to this summer’s recruitment strategies.
One way to track the health of travel and leisure spending this summer is by looking at how much disposable income consumers have, and how willing they are to spend it on non-essentials. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, inflation-adjusted disposable income growth was running above 6%, fueled by strong wage gains and government stimulus.
As that extra cash was gradually spent down, disposable income growth has cooled, even as consumer spending remained surprisingly resilient. Today, inflation-adjusted growth in disposable income has slowed to around 2% year-over-year. With less financial cushion, consumers may approach summer travel plans a bit more cautiously and prioritize certain trips over others.
On the recruiting front, Appcast’s cost-per-application (CPA) data shows that much of the pandemic-era pricing pressure has eased. For many summer seasonal positions, CPAs have fallen to multi-year lows, with the median now below $10. In fast food, for example, CPAs that exceeded $20 just two years ago have declined by more than half, now averaging under $8.
As we move into the core summer hiring months, recruiting costs remain stable. Early CPA trends suggest employers are unlikely to see significant cost pressures in July, August, or September unless labor demand unexpectedly accelerates.
Hotel Hiring: A Mixed Bag
The hotel industry has still not fully recovered the workers it lost during the pandemic. Employment remains more than 160,000 jobs below pre-pandemic levels, and the sector is more than 350,000 jobs short of its pre-pandemic forecasted trend. Many workers who were laid off during the pandemic used the time to pursue new skills or career changes, shifting into other industries and reducing the labor supply for hotel employers.
In 2025, ongoing challenges in immigration policy have added further strain, limiting the flow of new workers into the sector. Nearly one in four workers are foreign-born in accommodation and food services, the third highest share across the entire economy. As a result, the available talent pool remains smaller, forcing many hotels to operate with leaner staffing models.
At the start of the year, hotel bookings data started to flash some early warning signs. Bookings fell 8% in the first quarter, likely reflecting a combination of fewer international visitors and a pullback in domestic business travel. Inflation-adjusted spending on hotels and restaurants rose just 0.8% year-over-year in the first quarter, a noticeable slowdown compared to the 2% to 3% growth rates seen in the immediate post-pandemic recovery. These softer demand signals could weigh on hiring needs as hotels plan for the peak summer season.
Restaurants still playing catch-up on hiring
For recruiters hiring in restaurants and bars, the recovery has followed a similar path as hotels and travel accommodations. The sector only recently regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic. But compared to its pre-pandemic trajectory, employment remains roughly 740,000 jobs short.
This gap isn’t simply a story of weak consumer demand. In fact, consumer spending on food services and accommodations is up 10.5% since the pandemic, while employment in the sector has grown by just 1.5%. The result is an employment sector still grappling with structural shortages, driven by a mix of stronger demand and ongoing staffing challenges.
Hiring demand for the rest of the summer will likely track closely with last year’s trends. Disposable incomes are growing at a similar pace, and overall consumer spending patterns remain consistent. However, uncertainty about the broader economy may lead some consumers to pull back slightly, opting to skip that extra brunch or cocktail dinner. While the foundation for summer hiring appears stable, pockets of caution may temper demand at the margins.
Airlines fly past pre-pandemic employment levels, despite international softness
Airline passenger travel has made headlines in recent months as international visits to the U.S. have softened, particularly from Canada, where cross-border travel declined 24% in May.
Still, the broader passenger airline industry has staged a strong post-pandemic recovery. The sector has fully regained all jobs lost during the pandemic and is now expanding at a pace above its pre-pandemic trend, fueled in part by a surge of “revenge spending.” This rebound has driven near-record employment growth and solid wage gains for flight attendants, pilots, and technicians.
A high frequency read on domestic travel comes from TSA’s daily checkpoint numbers. In May, 79.2 million travelers passed through security, down from 80.6 million during the same month last year.
This modest decline may signal that both business and leisure travelers are becoming slightly more cautious, potentially pulling back on flights. If this trend continues into the core summer months, it could begin to weigh on hiring demand across airlines, airports, and related service providers.
In their most recent spring earnings reports, several major airline carriers issued profit warnings, citing ongoing economic uncertainty. Adding to traveler concerns, a string of high-profile airline incidents has created additional unease among consumers. Together, these factors may contribute to a more cautious outlook for both air travel demand and airline hiring in the coming months.
The productivity factor
Taking stock of the broader picture, hotel and restaurant employment remains below its pre-pandemic trend, while air transportation employment has fully recovered and continued to grow. Productivity helps explain much of this difference.
In hotels and restaurants, output per worker has increased meaningfully since the pandemic. But, with fewer staff the quality of service may have declined as well with longer wait times, which would not be captured by government statistics. Businesses have found ways to serve more customers with fewer employees, reducing the need for additional hiring.
Air transportation tells a different story. Productivity in the sector has been weaker, forcing airlines to hire more staff to maintain service levels. This dynamic has fueled stronger recruiting demand for pilots, flight attendants, ground crews, and technicians.
What does this mean for recruiting?
The outlook for summer holiday hiring is more uncertain than in recent years. Slower growth in disposable income may start to weigh on consumer spending, which could soften hiring demand in some sectors. While travel, restaurants, and hotels are still seeing healthy levels of activity, a more cautious consumer may limit the pace of additional hiring as the summer progresses.
For recruiters, this means hiring demand is unlikely to surge but should remain stable in most areas. Sourcing candidates will be easier than it was during the peak labor shortages of 2021 and 2022, as cost-per-application remains well below pandemic-era highs. However, sectors like air transportation, where staffing needs remain elevated due to weaker productivity, may still face more competitive recruiting environments.
