Economy-wide breakdown
- The third quarter of 2024 saw a continuation of the slowing job market trend, with lower job growth and rising unemployment. Both July and August’s initial reports fell short of market expectations, heightening concerns about a potential labor market recession. However, September’s stronger-than-expected gain of 254,000 jobs has alleviated some of those fears. Still, the broader narrative remains: the labor market is growing at a slower pace compared to the first two quarters of the year.
- Unemployment gradually increased this quarter, driven primarily by an influx of new workers entering or returning to the workforce, rather than by job losses. The overall rate of hiring activity has significantly declined, near 2013 levels as workers are quitting far less resulting in a low turnover environment.
- Wage growth continues to decelerate, now below 4% and trending towards 3.5%.
- Inflation has continued to cool, and amid growing concerns about a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. This move signals the central bank has confidence that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target and fears that current monetary policy is too restrictive and requires easing to boost employer demand for hiring.
Read our economy-wide breakdown of the latest numbers.
Employment Trends
The warehousing slump returned in the third quarter after a period of sustained growth in the spring. In September, the sector shed 11,000 net jobs. The question now is whether there will be a rebound associated with the holiday season, as retail and e-commerce sales pick up. Large companies like Amazon and Target have already announced increased hiring plans in the fourth quarter, but will it be enough to reinvigorate this long-suffering subsector?
Transportation subsectors are hardly faring better, with the three-month average over the quarter less than or barely greater than zero for all three subsectors: air, rail, and trucking transportation. The transportation sector has certainly slowed, and many recruiters may even feel it is in the midst of a downturn.
In all, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 8,600 jobs in September, with losses in nearly every subsector we track in these reports. The exception is trucking and ground passenger transportation, which added 3,400 net new jobs.
The rail and warehousing and storage subsectors are both shrinking at rates of -1.8% and -1.2%, respectively. Warehousing is shrinking at a smaller rate than it was last year, but it is still struggling to consistently add workers. Air and transit have both flattened, now adding jobs at 2.8% and 3.2%, respectively.
Wage Trends
As for wage growth, workers within subsectors are facing very different realities. Truck transportation and warehousing and storage workers are seeing their wage growth stagnate, at 2.1% in truck transportation and a reasonable 3.5% in warehousing and storage. Air transportation workers are seeing a resurgence in wage growth, most recently experiencing wage gains of 7.6% year over year. Transit and ground passenger transportation workers’ wage growth has plummeted recently, and they are now experiencing negative wage growth of -1.0%.
Openings and Turnover Trends
Transportation and warehousing openings are increasing slightly after a dramatic drop in the fourth quarter of 2023. The key measure of demand is now at 4.8%. Hires are keeping up well, even eclipsing demand in July and now at 3.8%. The quits rate is barely higher than the layoffs rate, now at 1.8% compared to a layoffs rate of 1.6%. The initiator of separations (workers or companies) is shifting, bad news for workers that may have become used to having the upper hand in the labor marketplace.
Recruitment Marketing Trends
The term “long” or “ATS apply” refers to the conventional application process, requiring applicants to manually submit their tailored application documents and personal details through the company’s website or an applicant tracking system (ATS). In many cases, applicants are required to create a company-specific account.
On the other hand, “easy apply” refers to a swift application process on a job board, often conducted through a smartphone. With a single click, essential information like the resume is transmitted directly to the company. Due to the simplicity of this application method, easy-apply metrics are not directly comparable to those of the “long” or ATS apply. The metrics are therefore presented separately.
Long Apply
The labor market in transportation and warehousing has completely shifted in the past two years, and recruiting costs reflect those changes. The shift in power from workers to companies is obvious, as costs have stabilized and apply rates have increased. Cost-per-clicks are at just $0.80, nearly flat over the third quarter. Cost-per-applications landed at an incredibly low $11.02 in September. Meanwhile, apply rates have continued to climb, now at 7.2%. Job seekers are definitely in a more precarious position than they were just two years ago, and it’s very apparent in these benchmarks.
Easy Apply
The shift in power is even more obvious when considering easy apply metrics. CPCs aren’t too much lower than their long-apply counterparts, at $0.66. It can be difficult for employers to influence this metric, even in easy-apply form. CPAs are unbelievably low in the transportation and warehousing sector, at just $2.85 in September. This is, of course, because of very high apply rates, most recently at 24.4%.
Recruitment Marketing Forecast
Using Appcast’s weekly historical CPA data, Recruitonomics has created a six-month forecast of long-apply cost-per-application for the transportation and warehousing sector. In the next two quarters, cost-per-applications are projected to fall even further from their already low levels.
What does this mean for Transportation and Warehousing?
The transportation and warehousing sector is in its own mini downturn. The warehousing subsector could not sustain the resurgence it experienced in the second quarter, but it may fare better following the seasonal hiring push by several high-volume hiring companies. The transportation sector is also struggling, though it is not as troubled. With low recruiting costs and far more power in the hiring process, it is a time for recruiters to recenter themselves, perfect the basics, and prepare for the inevitable rebound in the employment situation, which could be spurred by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Forecasting Methodology
Cost-per-application (CPA) is forecasted two quarters ahead using the previous two years’ worth of one-month moving average data. A combination of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal naïve models are used to create an ensemble forecast. The forecast provides both the 95th percentile confidence intervals, indicating the likelihood that each value will be within the CPA range provided.
