Author: Sam Kuhn and Ada Acker
Economy-wide breakdown
- The U.S. labor market has shrugged off the worst predictions of the immediate tariff impacts as employment growth averaged 150,000 per month over a three-month period. Yet when you look under the hood, warning signs emerge: healthcare and leisure & hospitality own the bulk of job growth while all other major sectors are either flat or have contracted.
- The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in June, but due to an unfavorable reason: the labor force has begun to contract. In May, 625,000 workers left the labor force. Then the labor force contracted again by 130,000 in June. The shift in U.S. immigration policy has started to materialize throughout the job market, potentially signaling renewed labor shortages.
- On the trade front, a new major trade deadline has been announced: come August 1st, a new set of reciprocal tariffs will be enforced unless a deal with that country has been struck. Policy uncertainty remains elevated, which is souring the mood of consumers and businesses. Until clarity is given on the final path of trade, it is likely that volatility will persist in financial markets, risking bleeding into the broader economy.
- On July 4th, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) was signed into law marking a significant change in fiscal policy: tax cuts for both businesses and households, boosted funding for immigration enforcement, and reductions in spending for Medicaid and SNAP. Each one of these provisions can alter the difficulty of recruiting by industry, depending on the type of workforce. TK: Read more from our Chief Economist Andrew Flowers to learn more.
Read our economy-wide breakdown of the latest numbers.
Employment Trends
Hiring in the technology sector has been sluggish, as policy changes and budget cuts continue to hinder job growth. Job postings in the sector have not seen much positive change outside of electrical engineering, which saw an increase in the past few months. Scientific research & development has seen the greatest decline, especially after significant federal funding cuts were made to R&D at the beginning of 2025.
Hiring in the tech sector did see a surprising, if minor, increase in employment change. Three-month average job growth turned positive, with the sector gaining an average of 3,000 jobs—a three-month increase that has not been seen since the end of 2024.
Due to a decrease in funding across the technology sector, job growth has stagnated and dropped across all subsectors. R&D employment growth took the biggest hit, shrinking by -0.5% annually. Engineering employment has seen a slight decline to around 3.2% annual growth. Software saw a dip in growth down to 1.9%, and management consulting remained consistent at just over 1%.
Wage Trends
Wage growth in Q3 has remained relatively consistent with the previous quarter. Wage growth for software and engineering companies remains high at 5% and 5.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, management consulting grew almost 1% quarter-over-quarter to 2.8% and R&D continues to show an overall downward trend, ending at 0.7%.
Openings and Turnover Trends
Hiring in the tech sector steadied out to 2.8% while job openings continued to rise, jumping to 5.1% in the second quarter. Attrition (or voluntary quits) remained relatively stable at just under 1.2% as layoffs and discharges decreased slightly to 1.1%. The moderation of job turnover and an increase in job openings suggests that the sector is still cautious, but stabilizing.
Recruitment Marketing Trends
The term “long” or “ATS apply” refers to the conventional application process, requiring applicants to manually submit their tailored application documents and personal details through the company’s website or an applicant tracking system (ATS). In many cases, applicants are required to create a company-specific account.
On the other hand, “easy apply” refers to a swift application process on a job board, often conducted through a smartphone. With a single click, essential information like the resume is transmitted directly to the company. Due to the simplicity of this application method, easy-apply metrics are not directly comparable to those of the “long” or ATS apply. The metrics are therefore presented separately.
Long Apply
Recruiting costs saw a slight uptick in quarter two, with cost-per-click (CPC) climbing to $1.42 and $1.45 for science and technology jobs, respectively. Cost-per-application (CPA) for tech jobs saw an increase to $16 while science jobs saw a recent CPA decrease down to just under $20. Meanwhile, the apply rate for science jobs continued to increase to 7% while technology jobs remained stable at just over 9%.
Easy Apply
Easy-apply costs for technology followed similar trends compared to traditional apply methods; however, science job recruiting costs did not. CPC for technology rose to $1.13 while science CPC dropped to just under one dollar. CPA for science jobs saw a spike up to $12.41, while technology saw an increase to $5.28. Both science and technology saw a decrease in apply rates, dropping to 10.5% and 19%, respectively—an almost 10% decrease since the first quarter.
Recruitment Marketing Forecasts in Technology
The Trump Administration’s fiscal year budget request details proposed cuts to research across many programs, with major agencies like the National Science Foundation’s budget being cut over 55% and NASA’s by just under 25%. The recently passed OBBBA further enacts the elimination of clean energy tax credits as well as a reduction in R&D grants. However, at the same time there’s a significant explosion in demand for data centers, increasing hiring demand for engineering and AI talent which will be a tailwind for the sector for years to come.
Together, these changes are putting pressure on the technology sector. As a result, recruiting costs will likely remain stagnant for the rest of 2025. Our forecast predicts that CPAs in both science and tech will stay in the $15 to $20 range.
What does this mean for technology?
Uncertainty remains prevalent in the sector. With the Trump Administration proposing more budget cuts in the future, verticals that are reliant on federal funding could continue to see negative impacts. However, with the increase in employment change in quarter two, the sector appears to be steadying out. Recruiters will likely see similar apply rates and slightly elevated recruiting costs throughout the rest of the year.
Forecasting Methodology
Cost-per-application (CPA) is forecasted two quarters ahead using the previous two years’ worth of one-month moving average data. A combination of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal naïve models are used to create an ensemble forecast. The forecast provides both the 95th percentile confidence intervals, indicating the likelihood that each value will be within the CPA range provided.
