Author: Sam Kuhn
Economy-wide breakdown
- At the start of 2025, the labor market looks solid. It grew at a steady rate, averaging 180,000 new jobs a month over a three-month average. Wage growth continues to moderate, trending towards 3.5% as inflationary wage pressures recede and the unemployment rate remains near a historical low of 4.2%.
- Under the hood, though, there are some issues. For one, hiring is very healthcare heavy. In March, 40% of private employment growth was concentrated in healthcare and private education. Outside of healthcare, most industries are experiencing uneven growth grappling with elevated interest rates and heightened uncertainty about trade policy.
- On April 2nd— or “Liberation Day”— President Trump issued a sweeping increase of tariffs that will bring the average U.S. tariff rate to the highest point in more than a century. It includes a 10% across-the-board tariff, affecting all foreign goods imports. The impending fallout from retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners across Europe and Asia will radically shift employment growth in goods-oriented industries like retail, transportation and manufacturing as consumer good prices rise in response to tariffs. Compromises may be reached, and tariffs levels could be lowered.
- In March, Appcast’s Chief Economist Andrew Flowers presented our outlook on the economy in the face of sweeping policy changes. Our base case is a slowdown in economic growth due to immigration and trade policy changes, but not a recession. However, over the past three months consumers’ expectations of inflation have risen rapidly while sentiment around the business environment has deteriorated – a serious warning sign about the future health of the economy. This environment is highly dynamic, and by the time you read this it may be out of date.
Read our economy-wide breakdown of the latest numbers.
Employment Trends
The resurgence of U.S. manufacturing jobs has been a hotly debated policy subject following the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariffs. President Trump has vowed to renew domestic manufacturing by increasing the cost of foreign imported goods to incentivize consumers and businesses to invest domestically in hopes to spur job growth.
While it’s uncertain whether this outcome will be realized, what is true is that investment into manufacturing has increased substantially since 2020. Before the pandemic, about $70 billion dollars a year were spent on manufacturing structures from the private sector. In five years, that has doubled to nearly $150 billion.
Despite this seismic shift in investment spending, employment growth has been quite tepid over the past two years. Three-month average job growth is just above 1,300 jobs a month, compared to the highs in 2021 of above 40,000. The sector continues to grapple with higher interest costs, foreign competition and a strong dollar increasing the costs of U.S. exported goods.
Employment growth has been softening across all major manufacturing subsectors. Food manufacturing is the only category that is growing at a positive rate, at 0.5% annually. Transportation, machinery and computer part manufacturing have all declined relative to a year ago. The COVID-era boom in job growth has completely receded and returned the industry back towards a slow decline. Proposed policy changes may reverse this course, but that is unknown so far.
Wage Trends
Wage growth has surprised towards the upside, as all subsectors’ wages are growing more than 4% annually. Workers in computer and electronic product manufacturing have seen their wages increase by 11.5%, which is down slightly from an all-time high. Similarly, machinery and transportation equipment manufacturing workers are enjoying robust wage growth of over 6%, while food manufacturing workers wages have moderated towards 4%.
Opening and Turnover Trends
Job openings in manufacturing have declined significantly from their COVID peak but now appear to have modestly rebounded. In February, job openings were 3.4% of total employment—that figure has increased modestly to 3.6%. Likewise, hiring activity rebounded slightly to 2.5% as well. Attrition—or voluntary quits—continues to decline to 1.4%. Layoff activity did tick up just a bit, to 0.9%. Overall competition for workers in the industry has picked up through the first quarter of the year.
Recruitment Marketing Trends
The term “long” or “ATS apply” refers to the conventional application process, requiring applicants to manually submit their tailored application documents and personal details through the company’s website or an applicant tracking system (ATS). In many cases, applicants are required to create a company-specific account.
On the other hand, “easy apply” refers to a swift application process on a job board, often conducted through a smartphone. With a single click, essential information like the resume is transmitted directly to the company. Due to the simplicity of this application method, easy-apply metrics are not directly comparable to those of the “long” or “ATS apply”. The metrics are therefore presented separately.
Long Apply
Given the modest increase in competition for workers though the first quarter of the year, recruiting costs did not decrease much. Cost-per-click (CPC) ticked up just slightly to $1.01. Apply rates did surpass 8%, which is a welcome sign as more job seekers are signaling serious intent. Cost-per-application (CPA) has not moved much recently and has been around the $13 dollar mark for several months.
Easy Apply
Easy-apply costs have come down modestly through the first quarter unlike traditional apply methods. The median CPC shrunk to a near historical low of $0.68, as well as CPAs falling below $3. This is driven by very strong apply rates, nearing 30%.
Recruitment Marketing Forecast
Recruitment marketing costs have come down substantially in the past four years, but that trend may slow or reverse through the remainder of the year. We’ve seen a modest rise in competition for workers, which has propped up traditional apply method costs. Our forecast predicts that CPAs will remain in the $10 to $13 range for the remainder of the year.
What does this mean for recruiting in Manufacturing?
Policy changes are set to radically change the United States’ relationships with our trading partners, in the hope to spur domestic manufacturing growth. This could be a significant win for job growth, but there is uncertainty surrounding the length and magnitude of the tariff hikes. Even before the policy changes were enacted April 2nd, competition for manufacturing workers did rise over the first quarter of the year. Recruiters should expect a mostly healthy flow of applications, but also elevated CPAs as well.
Forecasting Methodology
Cost-per-application (CPA) is forecasted two quarters ahead using the previous two years’ worth of one-month moving average data. A combination of ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal naïve models are used to create an ensemble forecast. The forecast provides both the 95th percentile confidence intervals, indicating the likelihood that each value will be within the CPA range provided.
